Copper supply side increasingly tight

It would be a lie to suggest that the copper supply and demand situation is tenable.

In 2025, mining disruptions led to significant declines in output. Cruz noted that production in Q4 2024 exceeded that of any quarter in 2025; in fact, the sector lost around 1 million metric tons (MT) of output in total.

Much of the reduction was due to unforeseen situations, such as the mudslide at Freeport-McMoRan’s (NYSE:FCX) Grasberg in Indonesia, seismic events at Ivanhoe Mines’ (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and worker strikes at BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Escondida in Chile.

While the operations will eventually recover, the incidents come at a time when the copper market is increasingly tight and is expected to enter into a supply deficit in the coming years.

Cruz is predicting copper production growth of 1.5 percent in 2025, suggesting that the growth rate is behind what is expected from refined copper demand. The majority of the increase will come from mines returning to normal operations, with additional amounts from projects or expansions that began ramping up in 2025.

Cruz stated that pre-disruption growth was originally forecast at around 2 million MT in 2026, but has since been downgraded by around 700,000 MT, with the majority of the reduction coming from Escondida.

“We see that supply coming in this year will be highly skewed towards H2 as mines recover, with a 9 percent increase between Q1 and Q4, with most of this growth coming from South America, Africa and Asia, ex-China,” Cruz said.

From there, he expects growth to stabilize in 2027 at a much higher rate than this year, with Africa to experience a faster growth rate than the overall market. In the long run, Cruz predicts a compound annual growth rate of 0.9 percent between 2025 and 2035, with copper output peaking in 2033 at 27 million MT.

Copper demand drivers to watch

One of the main areas Cruz focused on was the acceleration of demand driven by the energy transition, artificial intelligence and technology. A lot of the new demand is coming from electric vehicles (EVs) — while the amount of copper in each EV is seen declining, demand growth will remain strong as sales increase.

“We do think that copper density on EVs is going to go down substantially. From 2010 to 2035, it’s going to go from 85 kilograms per unit to 64 kilograms per unit. In spite of this, we still think that copper demand from battery EVs and hybrid vehicles will grow substantially from around 2.3 million MT in 2025 to 6 million MT in 2035,” Cruz said.

It’s not just EVs, other technologies like artificial intelligence, data centers and communications are placing additional strains on the electrical infrastructure. Increasing demand for new power lines, electrical generators and energy storage is further bolstering downstream demand for copper.

“We anticipate demand from these particular sectors will grow from around 10 million MT in 2025 to 14 million MT in 2035. With most of the demand coming from energy transmission and generation,” Cruz said.

He went on to explain that transmission and generation account for 77 percent of the anticipated growth.

Cruz thinks energy demand has been overshadowed by the growth in data centers, where he suggested that copper demand will increase by only about 400,000 MT between 2025 and 2035.

“Of the growth I told you about from EVs with almost 4 million MT, or the demand from energy infrastructure with a little less than 3 million MT, it’s not that impressive. Although it still adds up to a substantial growth,” he said.

100 new copper mines by 2035?

The key takeaway from Cruz’s presentation was that a copper supply gap is developing. While he pointed out that the annual supply growth rate will come in at around 1 percent, demand is nearly double at 1.9 percent.

“This basically means that with the mines that currently exist, plus the projects that are under construction, we expect to see a difference in what needs to be mined and what will be mined in 2035 of around 7.4 million MT,” he said.

When probable projects are factored in, the supply gap narrows, but a 2.2 million MT shortfall still exists. However, these additional projects are not guaranteed. Cruz suggested that to avoid shortfalls, 100 new mines with output in the 75,000 MT range need to be built by 2035 — but this won’t be an easy task. Of the 10 largest mines in the world, only two were built after 2010; meanwhile, many of the others are decades or over 100 years old.

One reason new mines are scarce is long permitting processes, but Cruz also acknowledged that newly found large-scale deposits are at greater depths and lower grades. This has led to a scarcity of greenfield projects, with most growth coming from expansions at existing mines, a trend Cruz expects to continue over the coming years.

“Looking ahead, we expect this trend to continue to the point that we anticipate that by 2031, new production from greenfield projects will be half of what it was in 2011,” he said.

Additionally, Cruz said the copper market is becoming increasingly bifurcated, with China set to be a dominant force in both production and refinement of the red metal moving forward.

“The supply gap, or the future copper shortage, is something that the industry has been warning about for years now. The truth is, it seems not a lot of people are paying attention to it, but China has,” he said.

Cruz explained that China’s involvement in the Democratic Republic of Congo was the result of extensive planning and considerable investment. In fact, Chinese companies have collectively surpassed western producers and are securing their own supply chain.

Investor takeaway

Overall, Cruz believes the copper sector is well positioned for investment.

While he has some concern that smelting capacity is nearing saturation, he expects the situation to return to balance by 2031 and thinks that competition for concentrate will keep producer costs lower until then.

The combination of low treatment charges, high copper prices and even higher by-product gold, silver and molybdenum prices has helped increase margins and profitability for operators.

“We think that the market is in a very good position right now for miners at least. You could argue that for smelters it’s good as well despite the treatment and refinement charges, and we think that if these factors last a little bit longer, we expect some of these projects to bring the copper that humanity needs,” Cruz said.

Canada’s unique tax incentives crucial for mining investment

Canada owes its leading position in the global mining industry to its large landmass and abundance of natural resources. However, both Silver and Killeen pointed out that the nation’s flow-through share tax incentive — unique to Canada — is also “incredibly critical” to the success of the natioin’s mining sector.

Flow-through shares are a highly specialized financing tool that allow resource companies to transfer eligible exploration and development expenses to investors, who then deduct them from their own taxable income.

Under the Mineral Exploration Tax Credit (METC), funds generated from this type of capital raise must be put into a project within 18 months. There’s also the Critical Mineral Exploration Tax Credit (CMETC), which applies to critical minerals used for batteries and magnets, including rare earths, nickel, uranium, lithium and graphite, among others.

Generational shift shrinking pool of mining investors

Although Canada dominates the global mining finance sector and is teeming with multiple types of mineral deposits, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for the nation’s exploration-stage companies to attract investment dollars.

The tight financial landscape for today’s explorers stems in part from both a complex regulatory system that limits the areas open to mining activity, and a lack of proper infrastructure in the more remote regions of the country. Both of these shortcomings strike at the heart of perceived jurisdictional risk for both retail and institutional investors.

During his presentation, Killeen highlighted a few of the key financing trends affecting access to capital in the mineral industry, noting that last year saw a dramatic uptick in investment in the mining sector.

Where is capital originating from? Most of it was equity raised through private placements, which poses a problem as it represents a very narrow investor base that consists of friends and family of the management team and strategic investors that probably already own shares in the company.

“That just tells us that we’re not broadening the investor base. We’re not pulling in more investors. There’s no more new retail folks coming in investing in shares in Canada. This tells us that we’re in a very risky balance in terms of who actually can fund the sector through the next generation,” he warned the PDAC audience.

“There is a lesser population of retail investors as time goes on. You know that the Boomer generation is going away in terms of an investment pool, and the next generation isn’t necessarily replicating that.”

Silver also views the generational shift in the investment landscape as a problem for raising money in the mining industry. “There’s no question from what I’ve read and heard that the younger generations don’t pick individual stocks. They tend to lean towards ETFs or crypto or other stuff,” he said. “Crypto is definitely competing with mining.”

Gold grabbing all the dollars

Canada’s minerals industry did experience a strong rebound in terms of equity investment in 2025, but it was heavily targeted at producers and developers with large-scale, near-production projects. Gold dominated, but investment also increased in projects associated with critical minerals like lithium, nickel, copper and graphite.

“How much is going to the bottom end, to those sub-$100 million market cap companies, the lion’s share of the junior explorers that are out there? Well, in the Canadian marketplace, only about 10 percent of every dollar raised is getting down to those size of companies,” explained Killeen, highlighting the discrepancy.

In his view, the lack of investment over the past decade is bringing about a decline in grassroots exploration.

Gold is grabbing many mineral investment dollars, not only because its price is surging to unprecedented highs, but also because there’s a faster return on investment compared to other metals. Killeen said that’s due to the fact that gold mining doesn’t require large amounts of infrastructure such as railways and ports.

“In some cases, you don’t need roads. The capital to develop a gold mine might be one-sixth of, one-10th of or one-20th of a copper mine or a zinc mine,” he commented. “So the rate of return for the average investor who’s looking at an exploration stock saying, ‘Could I get money back into this? Could I get value back into this?’ Today that timeframe is much shorter, and the capital to bring it to market is much lower.”

Looking at copper, which is much more capital intensive, Killeen said production is down nearly 30 percent from seven or eight years ago. Reserves are also down, even though rising copper prices have resulted in more resources being upgraded to reserves. Silver agreed with that take — his research shows that the Canadian mining industry is overflowing with gold companies. Of the 1,555 mining companies in Canada in 2024, 42 percent of them were gold-focused firms compared to only 17 percent for copper, the second highest amount.

“So why do we have so many gold companies? I think the answer is pretty obvious to me, which is if you want to build a porphyry copper mine, you’ve got to go raise $5 (billion) or $10 billion,” said Silver. “That’s very difficult in the mining industry, because we just don’t have that much gross capital available to us relative to what some of the other industries have … but you can build a gold mine for a couple hundred million (dollars).’

Despite the massive focus on gold, Killeen and Silver both noted that Canada is actually seeing increasing exploration activity for rare earths, lithium, cobalt, graphite and uranium.

Improving the investment case for Canada’s juniors

Killeen said PDAC and its members are pushing for the Canadian government to make the METC and CMETC permanent to bring more investment into mineral exploration in greenfield regions and making new discoveries.

Last year, flow-through shares generated C$1.6 billion in investment into the sector, according to Silver’s research, or about 76 percent of funding received by mineral exploration companies in Canada.

“When you look at the role of Canadian flow through, it’s so incredibly critical to Canadian mining,” he said. Silver too is advocating for the mining industry and investors to “fight for flow through way more than you do.’

To address infrastructure challenges for bringing critical metals projects into production sooner for a quicker return on investment, Killeen suggested more pension funds investing in Canada and easing government regulations.

“We need them cooperating together with the federal government to develop major infrastructure that doesn’t exist beyond 100 kilometers from the border,” he said.

Killeen noted that “the world is changing” and governments, including Canada’s, are becoming more focused on securing domestic sources of critical minerals. For example, at PDAC, Tim Hodgson, Canada’s minister of energy and natural resources, announced a C$3.6 billion suite of investments targeting the critical minerals sector.

1. Pan American Silver (TSX:PAAS,NYSE:PAAS)

Market cap: C$37.1 billion
Share price: C$92.37

Pan American Silver is among the world’s largest primary silver producers, with silver assets located throughout the Americas and operations in Peru, Mexico, Bolivia, Argentina and Chile. Its largest wholly owned silver-producing asset is its La Colorada mine in Mexico.

Pan American also has a 44 percent stake in the Juanicipio mine in Central Mexico following its US$2.1 billion acquisition of MAG Silver that closed in September 2025. The mine is operated by Fresnillo (LSE:FRES), which holds the remaining 56 percent.

According to Pan American’s Q4 and full year 2025 report, its operations produced a record 7.28 million ounces of attributable silver in Q4 boosted by the addition of the Juanicipio mine. Juancipio is now the company’s biggest silver producer, producing 1.91 million ounces of attributable silver in Q4.

The La Colorada mine was the second highest contributor at 1.61 million ounces of silver. Other significant contributions came from the El Peñon gold-silver mine in Chile at 1.06 million ounces of silver, Cerro Moro in Argentina at 920,000 ounces, Huaron in Peru at 780,000 ounces and San Vicente in Bolivia at 760,000 ounces.

For the full year, Pan American produced 22.8 million ounces of attributable silver, coming in above its annual guidance. The company also provided guidance for 2026, estimating production of 25 million to 27 million ounces of attributable silver and all-in sustaining costs for its silver segment of US$15.75 to US$18.25 per ounce.

2. First Majestic Silver (TSX:AG,NYSE:AG)

Market cap: C$19.75 billion
Share price: C$42.59

First Majestic Silver has three wholly owned silver-producing mines in Mexico: San Dimas in Durango, Santa Elena in Sonora and La Encantada in Coahuila. The first two produce gold as well.

Additionally, the company holds a 70 percent stake in the Los Gatos silver mine in Chihuahua, which also produces zinc, lead and gold as byproducts. First Majestic acquired the property in January 2025 through a merger with Gatos Silver; Japan’s Dowa Holdings (TSE:5714) owns the remaining 30 percent.

On top of its mining operations, First Majestic mints and sells silver bullion from its First Mint facility in Nevada, US. The company commenced sales in March 2024.

According to its full year 2025 production report, First Majestic achieved record Q4 silver production of 4.17 million ounces of silver, a 77 percent year-over-year increase from 2.35 million ounces.

First Majestic’s Los Gatos mine was its largest producer, delivering 1.49 million attributable ounces of silver during the quarter. San Dimas took second place at 1.32 million ounces, while La Encantada and Santa Elena produced 1 million ounces and 358,185 ounces, respectively.

On a yearly basis, First Majestic produced 15.44 million ounces of silver, near the upper end of its guidance. The company set guidance for 2026 at 13 million to 14.4 million ounces of silver, with silver equivalent all-in sustaining costs at US$26.15 to US$27.91 per ounce.

3. Endeavour Silver (TSX:EDR,NYSE:EXK)

Market cap: C$5.33 billion
Share price: C$19.17

Endeavour Silver is a mining company with operations in Mexico and Peru.

In Mexico, Endeavour has two operating silver-gold mines — Guanaceví mine and Terronera — as well as a portfolio of exploration projects that includes the advanced Pitarilla silver project. The company achieved commercial production at Terronera in October 2025.

In Peru, the company owns the Kolpa silver mine, which also produces zinc, lead and copper. It acquired the Peruvian mine’s owner Compañia Minera Kolpa in May 2025 for total consideration of US$145 million in a combination of cash and shares. Endeavour also agreed to pay up to US$10 million in cash in contingent payments if certain events are met.

In its Q4 and full year 2025 results, Endeavour reported Q4 silver production of 2.03 million ounces, up 146 percent year over year. For the full year, Endeavour produced 6.49 million ounces of silver, a 45 percent increase over its production of 4.47 million in 2024.

Much of these gains were driven by new production from Kolpa and Terronera, which contributed 631,867 and 352,002 ounces of silver respectively in Q4. Kolpa delivered 1.61 million ounces during its eight months of ownership in 2025.

A large portion of the increase was due to the acquisition of Kolpa, which

The company also noted that it achieved commercial production at Terronera in October 2025, delivering 352,002 ounces of silver in the final quarter of the year. Another 608,388 ounces of silver were produced at its Bolanitos mine in Mexico in 2025.

On January 15, Endeavour announced it had completed the sale of the mine to Guanajuato Silver for upfront consideration of US$40 million, with additional payments to be made upon meeting production milestones at the mine.

4. Silvercorp Metals (TSX:SVM,NYSEAMERICAN:SVM)

Market cap: C$3.96 billion
Share price: C$18.84

Silvercorp Metals is a production and development company operating two silver mines in China: the Ying Mining District in Henan and the GC mine in Guangdong. It is also working to develop the copper primary El Domo project in Central Ecuador.

In the company’s operations report for its fiscal Q3 2026 ended December 31, Silvercorp reported total silver production for the quarter of 1.9 million ounces, a 4 percent decrease from the same period last year. The majority of its output came from the Ying Mining District, which delivered approximately 1.7 million ounces of silver, with about 100,000 ounces coming from the GC mine, according to the release.

It is constructing the Kuanping project as a satellite deposit for Ying, at which it expects to see minor development ore production beginning in June. In addition to mining activities, the company reported 76,607 meters of exploration drilling and 19,917 meters of tunnelling across Ying and GC.

On February 4, Silvercorp announced that the construction budget for its El Domo project had been increased by US$44 million to US$284 million. The largest component of the rise at US$16 million was an increase in the VAT rate from 10 percent to 15 percent; the company expects to recover the funds through tax credits in the first year of operation.

Silvercorp detailed its 2025 progress at El Domo in the release, which included moving over 2.6 million cubic meters of material for site preparation.

5. Americas Gold and Silver (TSX:USA,NYSEAMERICAN:USAS)

Market cap: C$3.34 billion
Share price: C$12.90

Americas Gold and Silver is a US and Mexico-focused silver producer. Its primary operations consist of the Galena Complex in Idaho, US, and the Cosala operations in Sinaloa, Mexico.

Americas is one of the largest primary silver miners in the US due to its Galena Complex in Nevada’s Silver Valley, a historic mining district that is home to the Bunker Hill, Sunshine and Lucky Friday mines. In addition to silver, Galena produces antimony and copper byproducts. In February, the company announced plans to build an antimony processing facility at the complex through a 51 percent owned joint venture.

In late 2025, Americas Gold and Silver completed a two phase plan to increase efficiency at the mine’s No. 3 shaft. The first phase upgraded the hoisting capacity from 40 to 80 metric tons per hour of material movement, while phase two included upgrades to the hoist pads, the installation of a hoist control console and the deployment of an antenna system in the shaft to support upgrades to automation.

The Cosala operations in Sinaloa comprise 67 mining concessions spanning 19,385 hectares and include the Los Braceros processing facility, the San Rafael mine and the EC120 mine. While San Rafael contains higher levels of zinc and lead, EC120 hosts higher grades of silver and copper. EC120 entered commercial production on January 1, 2026, as the company transitions its operations away from San Rafael.

In December, Americas Gold and Silver completed its acquisition of the past-producing Crescent silver mine, located 9 miles from the Galena Complex in Idaho. The company plans to restart production at the fully permitted mine, which produced more than 25 million ounces of silver between 1917 and 1981. Feedstock from the mine will be delivered to the milling site at the Galena Complex.

The company said it is fully funded and will rapidly advance Crescent to production, while also carrying out aggressive exploration programs at both sites.

On January 21, Americas announced it achieved record production from its Cosala operations, coming in at 1.19 million ounces of silver in 2025 and 463,000 ounces in Q4 alone.

Its combined full year silver production of 2.65 million ounces was up 52 percent over the 1.17 million attributable ounces it delivered in 2024, in part due to the company increasing its stake in Galena from 60 to 100 percent to end 2024.

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